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02/05/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One of the basic tenets of Sprint Cup racing which makes it so popular with its fan base, is that any of maybe 20 drivers can win on any given Sunday.
Not so with the series title. Only the really strong teams can win the series championship nowadays. Not since 1999 has a driver other than one from Hendrick Motorsports, Roush Fenway Racing or Joe Gibbs Racing laid claim to the title. That year Dale Jarrett won driving for Robert Yates Racing. In fact, since Dale Earnhardt won back-to-back titles in 1993 and 1994 Jarrett's title is the only one that got away from the "big three."
And 2008 looks like more of the same.
Don't get me wrong, there are a lot of drivers who can win a race here and there. Penske Racing with its lineup of Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman can look great on Sundays. Kasey Kahne won a series-high six times in 2006 and after an off year in 2007 should rebound. Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton contended for last year's title and look strong again in 2008.
But none of those will compete for the 2008 Sprint Cup crown. Yes, they will make it into the "Chase," but there is a difference between making the "show" and winning the "show."
The mentality of the "big three" is that winning the championship is all that matters.
Joe Gibbs Racing and Tony Stewart could have "stayed the course" and been competitive. They still had the driver and car to win races. But its all about the championship and JGR decided that the future was with Toyota. With Toyota they would be the No.1 team, not No.2 behind Hendrick Motorsports at Chevrolet. With full factory support from the Japanese manufacturer, JGR expects to be back on top very quickly.
"The difference between the new car and the old one really isn't that much different to me. A race car is a race car," said Stewart.
Though JGR, Stewart, Denny Hamlin and new teammate Kyle Busch may not win the title in 2008 (they will win races), the move will eventually pay off.
Roush Fenway Racing fell flat in 2007 and they freely admit that they didn't do enough work with the COT to compete. But that will change and has changed. By the end of the season, they were back in the mix and won three of the final 10 races.
Now with an off-season to make up for their shortcomings, Roush Fenway Racing will once again be a factor in the championship.
"We think we are caught up on the deficit we had," said owner Jack Roush. "And we think we are ready to start on a level playing field."
Matt Kenseth is the quietest of winners. He doesn't draw attention to himself, yet when it counts he is always there fighting for the championship. Since 2002 he has finished no lower than eighth overall while winning the "Cup" title in 2003. He finished fourth last season despite the team's troubles.
Carl Edwards seems ready to return to the rookie form which saw him finish tied with Greg Biffle just 35 points behind Stewart. Last year Edwards captured the Nationwide Series title (formerly known as Busch Series) and finished ninth in the Sprint Cup Series with three wins and 15 top-10s. But all three wins and 10 of the 15 top-10s came after the All-Star Challenge.
I expect big things from Edwards this season. So does Johnson, who watched him at the California Speedway test last week.
"The one that has impressed me really is Carl Edwards," said Johnson. "Those Roush cars have been good, especially Carl. He's been real fast, not only for one lap, but over the course of the run he's been really impressive."
Still, the title rests at Hendrick Motorsports and they have three drivers capable of keeping it in-house.
Lets start with the two-time defending champion Jimmie Johnson. It's not a fluke that he has won back-to-back titles and is trying to become the first since Cale Yarborough (1974-1976) to win three-in-a-row.
"He was a hero of mine when I was young," said Johnson. "He's one of NASCAR's all-time greats. I'm honored just to be mentioned with him."
Since rising to NASCAR's top series in 2002, Johnson has never finished lower than fifth in the championship. He is one of the smartest drivers, has a great crew chief (Chad Knaus), a great pit crew, Hendrick Motorsports equipment (read the best equipment) and his single-minded focus on winning is similar to that of his owner Rick Hendrick.
Johnson and Knaus must have the best communication skills in the series because in every race they improve and improve the No.48 Lowe's Chevrolet until by the end of the race they are almost always one of the fastest cars on the track.
Johnson won 10 times in 2007, the most since teammate Jeff Gordon posted 13 wins in 1998.
All 36 races in 2008 will be run with the COT (Car of Tomorrow). In 16 COT races last year, Johnson won five and collected 11 top-10s. His worst finish was a 21st-place finish at Bristol.
Johnson will have the same crew chief, pit crew and equipment in 2008 so there is every reason to believe he will win again. Unless he suddenly becomes stupid and tries to drive like Robby Gordon (in other words through people instead of around them), he will win another championship.
Although Johnson is the 4-1 co-favorite to win his third straight, he must share the top spot with Jeff Gordon. Gordon had one of the best years in the modern era in 2007, yet fell short in the "Chase" when Johnson won four straight times (Martinsville, Atlanta, Texas and Phoenix).
Jeff Gordon was at the top of the charts in COT races, posting the best finishing average in the series, 5.50. In the 16 races, he won three races, he finished in the top-5 10 times and in the top-10 14 times. Overall, he had six wins in the season and an astounding 30 top-10 finishes. Gordon and crew chief Steve Letarte have a good relationship and of course he will again have the reliability and horsepower of Hendrick Motorsports. If anyone can beat Johnson, it is Gordon.
While Johnson and Gordon will garner their usual amount of attention, all eyes will be watching a third member of the Hendrick Motorsports team - Dale Earnhardt Jr. Voted the most popular driver for the past five years, "Junior" has jumped from the team his father started DEI, to the strongest team in the series.
While Earnhardt Jr. owns 17 career victories, he went winless in 2007 and his old team had problems finishing races. He goes to a new team that not only expects wins (18 in 2007), but championships and gives its drivers the equipment to complete its task. He will also have Tony Eury Jr. as his crew chief so communication should not be a problem. Earnhardt Jr. will not have any excuses in 2008 for not winning races or being a championship contender. He will do both, although not as well as Johnson or Gordon.
"I'm a good driver with a good team - and if we don't make mistakes on Sunday, we should have great finishes and win some races," said Earnhardt Jr.
In a nutshell, its another year of Hendrick Motorsports domination, though probably not quite as big as in 2007 as Roush Fenway Racing closes the gap with both Kenseth and Edwards.
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Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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